Friday, July 30, 2010

Does anyone think oil will bounce back up after today's drop? Cam fell 12 dollars, could it go up tomorrow?

after all, yahoofinance news said it was an overreaction.Does anyone think oil will bounce back up after today's drop? Cam fell 12 dollars, could it go up tomorrow?
yes, oil is a very volitile commodity and price swings will be erratic from day to day and week to week; the long term trend remains very bullish for higher oil prices and the trend is your friend, I see oil at $114-119 a barrell by the end of next year. OPEC has been fairly reluctant to open the spicket, demand has increased and hurricanes have thus far had little impact on gulf rigs as well; see where the API (American Petroleum Institute) numbers come in on Wednesday morning.Does anyone think oil will bounce back up after today's drop? Cam fell 12 dollars, could it go up tomorrow?
it will of course bounce up





Justin
You can never be sure what oil will do from day to day, but unless something happens to support the current price, oil will probably continue to fall. Its anybody's guess where it will find support. The drillers and services industries will fall right along with the price of oil. It's always possible that CAM will bounce back briefly tomorrow, but at least in the short term it will probably trend lower along with the price of oil. If you're an investor, than go ahead and hold it. It never hurts to have a small position in the energy sector and Cam looks like a decent option. Lately most of the oil services companies have been posting great earnings, so a great earnings report won't insulate CAM from a downturn. It's up to you whether to hold it or sell it. If you bought it because it has good fundamentals, then go ahead and hold it, just be prepared for a little pain in the short term. If you bought it as a trade, it might be better to sell it and wait for oil to find a bottom.





Considering that the recent run up in the price of oil came without any real market moving events, it might be a good idea to hold it, who knows what oil will do if we do get some real market moving event. Then $100 might just be a start.





EDIT: Ok, this is where trading gets tricky. I see where CAM pulled back $3.00 today, while oil continued to fall. I would have liked the bounce back to be a bit stronger. The volume was good. I would expect there to be a bit of follow through in the morning. Then you'll have to decide whether to hold it or sell it. I would keep an eye on the price of oil. If oil continues to fall, than any upward move tomorrow will probably be short lived, and reverse in the afternoon. But if oil holds up, then CAM should perform very well. It also depends upon the overall market. If the market has another strong up day tomorrow it could carry CAM with it. But I don't expect that to happen. I'm betting that the market will start the day strong, but will run out of steam in the afternoon. This is data dependant though. Good numbers in the morning could propel the market a little higher, but poor numbers will cause the market to sell off sharply, especially toward the close.





All in all, I'm going to be holding my oil stocks. In the long run that's the best play. But I won't be a buyer.





Watch the last half hour tomorrow. If there's a strong sell off, then Thursday and Friday could bring another strong downturn.
supply and demand, dictates prices. China is demanding more oil to feed its growing economy...so you do the math.

No comments:

Post a Comment